A Bayesian Inferential Approach to Quantify the Transmission Intensity of Disease Outbreak
Identifieur interne : 000605 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000604; suivant : 000606A Bayesian Inferential Approach to Quantify the Transmission Intensity of Disease Outbreak
Auteurs : Adiveppa S. Kadi [Inde] ; Shivakumari R. Avaradi [Inde]Source :
- Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine [ 1748-670X ] ; 2015.
Abstract
Url:
DOI: 10.1155/2015/256319
PubMed: 25784956
PubMed Central: 4345055
Affiliations:
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<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">A Bayesian Inferential Approach to Quantify the Transmission Intensity of Disease Outbreak</title><author><name sortKey="Kadi, Adiveppa S" sort="Kadi, Adiveppa S" uniqKey="Kadi A" first="Adiveppa S." last="Kadi">Adiveppa S. Kadi</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="I1">Department of Studies in Statistics, Karnatak University, Dharwad 580003, India</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Inde</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Studies in Statistics, Karnatak University, Dharwad 580003</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Dharwad 580003</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Avaradi, Shivakumari R" sort="Avaradi, Shivakumari R" uniqKey="Avaradi S" first="Shivakumari R." last="Avaradi">Shivakumari R. Avaradi</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="I1">Department of Studies in Statistics, Karnatak University, Dharwad 580003, India</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Inde</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Studies in Statistics, Karnatak University, Dharwad 580003</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Dharwad 580003</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PMC</idno><idno type="pmid">25784956</idno><idno type="pmc">4345055</idno><idno type="url">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4345055</idno><idno type="RBID">PMC:4345055</idno><idno type="doi">10.1155/2015/256319</idno><date when="2015">2015</date><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Corpus">000943</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PMC">000943</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Curation">000943</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Curation">000943</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Checkpoint">000433</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Checkpoint">000433</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Merge">000B46</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Curation">000B46</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Checkpoint">000B46</idno><idno type="wicri:doubleKey">1748-670X:2015:Kadi A:a:bayesian:inferential</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Merge">000606</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Curation">000605</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Exploration">000605</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">A Bayesian Inferential Approach to Quantify the Transmission Intensity of Disease Outbreak</title><author><name sortKey="Kadi, Adiveppa S" sort="Kadi, Adiveppa S" uniqKey="Kadi A" first="Adiveppa S." last="Kadi">Adiveppa S. Kadi</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="I1">Department of Studies in Statistics, Karnatak University, Dharwad 580003, India</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Inde</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Studies in Statistics, Karnatak University, Dharwad 580003</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Dharwad 580003</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Avaradi, Shivakumari R" sort="Avaradi, Shivakumari R" uniqKey="Avaradi S" first="Shivakumari R." last="Avaradi">Shivakumari R. Avaradi</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="I1">Department of Studies in Statistics, Karnatak University, Dharwad 580003, India</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Inde</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Studies in Statistics, Karnatak University, Dharwad 580003</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Dharwad 580003</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine</title><idno type="ISSN">1748-670X</idno><idno type="eISSN">1748-6718</idno><imprint><date when="2015">2015</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><italic>Background</italic>. Emergence of infectious diseases like influenza pandemic (H1N1) 2009 has become great concern, which posed new challenges to the health authorities worldwide. To control these diseases various studies have been developed in the field of mathematical modelling, which is useful tool for understanding the epidemiological dynamics and their dependence on social mixing patterns. <italic>Method</italic>. We have used Bayesian approach to quantify the disease outbreak through key epidemiological parameter basic reproduction number (<italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub>), using effective contacts, defined as sum of the product of incidence cases and probability of generation time distribution. We have estimated <italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub> from daily case incidence data for pandemic influenza A/H1N1 2009 in India, for the initial phase. <italic>Result</italic>. The estimated <italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub> with 95% credible interval is consistent with several other studies on the same strain. Through sensitivity analysis our study indicates that infectiousness affects the estimate of <italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub>. <italic>Conclusion</italic>. Basic reproduction number <italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub> provides the useful information to the public health system to do some effort in controlling the disease by using mitigation strategies like vaccination, quarantine, and so forth.</p></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Diekmann, O" uniqKey="Diekmann O">O. Diekmann</name></author><author><name sortKey="Heesterbeek, J A P" uniqKey="Heesterbeek J">J. A. P. Heesterbeek</name></author><author><name sortKey="Metz, J A J" uniqKey="Metz J">J. A. J. Metz</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Anderson, R M" uniqKey="Anderson R">R. M. Anderson</name></author><author><name sortKey="May, R M" uniqKey="May R">R. M. 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Nishiura</name></author></analytic></biblStruct></listBibl></div1></back></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>Inde</li></country></list><tree><country name="Inde"><noRegion><name sortKey="Kadi, Adiveppa S" sort="Kadi, Adiveppa S" uniqKey="Kadi A" first="Adiveppa S." last="Kadi">Adiveppa S. Kadi</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Avaradi, Shivakumari R" sort="Avaradi, Shivakumari R" uniqKey="Avaradi S" first="Shivakumari R." last="Avaradi">Shivakumari R. Avaradi</name></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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